By Steven D. Mercatante[1]

Introduction:

The Second World War ended over sixty years ago, yet much about the War remains either
misunderstood or unknown. In particular, historians have debated and sought to
understand Stalin's decision making process in the months leading up to the June 22, 1941
German invasion of the Soviet Union. A decision-marking process ranking to this day among
the War's most enduring mysteries mostly because Stalin spent the spring of 1941
reviewing overwhelming evidence proving Hitler was about to attack, and yet, because he
refused to believe it; helped Germany to inflict defeats on the Red Army so catastrophic as
to nearly destroy the Soviet Union.

Stalin's judgment during these months, weeks and during the final days before the German
invasion, today remains most commonly regarded as motivated by a desire to maintain the
alliance formed between the Soviet Union and Germany in August 1939. Nevertheless, in
recent decades an increasing number of historians have refuted this explanation for Stalin's
behavior and have argued Stalin was planning to launch a massive pre-emptive attack on
German forces in East Prussia and Poland.

The following article will examine this debate by first examining the conventional wisdom
regarding Stalin's leadership immediately prior to the 1941 German attack on the Soviet
Union. A conventional wisdom built on a seemingly overwhelming body of evidence arguing
Stalin, during the spring of 1941, desperately sought to honor his treaty of non-aggression
and mutual economic support with Germany. Moreover, a conventional wisdom arguing
Stalin, in spite of examining considerable evidence Germany was about to attack the
Soviet Union, willfully ignored such evidence in a misguided belief Hitler would not attack
the Soviet Union.

Second, this article will look at the revisionist position. A position emerging over the past
thirty years and one arguing Stalin actually planned to attack Germany. Moreover, but for
the German invasion Stalin would have done so, possibly as soon as the late summer of
1941. Those challenging the conventional wisdom have relied heavily on the Red Army's
deployment in the spring of 1941; arguing these redeployments were for a pre-emptive
strike on Germany.
The Globe At War
Revisiting one of World War II's greatest Controversies: Was the Soviet Union
preparing to attack Germany in 1941?
Stalin (on right) speaking with Molotov in 1945 - Picture Courtesy of
Franklin Delano Roosevelt Library
Lastly, this article weighs the strength of each argument, the conventional wisdom and the
revisionist position, by examining the strength and readiness of the Red Army on the eve of
War. In taking a renewed look at the Red Army in the spring of 1941, it may be possible to
ascertain whether the Red Army was even ready for launching a campaign against Germany
in the spring of 1941; no less defending against a German invasion. Furthermore, through
examining the Red Army perhaps we will also gain a greater understanding as to what
Stalin intended to do with his colossal military machine in the spring and summer of 1941.

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